Macroeconomics Insight Center

North American retailers and suppliers breathed a sigh of relief last week when the United States, Mexico, and Canada reached a tentative new trade agreement to replace NAFTA. The direct effects on core retail are small, but there are large economic and political implications to consider inside ...

The macro outlook for the back-to-school season is mostly positive according to Kantar Consulting’s latest forecast, but households without children are likely to drive most of the spending in the third quarter. Top-line growth in the back-to-school third quarter will be 4.4%, up from ...

Despite tax policy experts forecasting a lift to most households’ disposable income from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, shoppers are much less certain. This divergence between perception and potential reality suggests retailers should curb near-term expectations even as some in the policy ...

Some low-income shoppers will see their tax refunds delayed until late February this year, likely disrupting sales at discounters and value-focused consumables retailers. The delay isn’t as impactful as last year, but should be noted by suppliers and retailers which focus on this shopper. ...

Even as most brick-and-mortar channels improved this past holiday, eCommerce took even bigger steps toward capturing holiday shoppers’ dollars. The government’s recently released quarterly sales measure indicates eCommerce sales in the holiday fourth quarter grew at their strongest ...

With new tax legislation, more of shoppers’ money will be going to retailers and less to the government in 2018, catalyzing the strongest retail sales growth since 2014. Retailers should still plan for old and new challenges in the coming quarters, which will offset some of the benefits ...

After seeing dismal growth in the previous two holiday seasons, holiday 2017 gave most U.S. retailers a reason to be cheerful. While online once again led all channels, a big step up in store sales drove the improvement. More shoppers had homegoods at the top of their lists, and a better store ...

Here’s more cold water thrown in the face of retailers and suppliers frustrated by moderate sales growth—more and more consumers are actually spending outside their budgets to make those purchases. According to personal income data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the savings ...

One brick-and-mortar retail channel will outpace the all-retail average for the seventh-straight year in 2018. It’s not club, and not even the discounter channel will manage that streak. Only the home improvement channel has consistently gained share of retail sales in the past six years ...