Macroeconomics Insight Center

Key takeaways: November top-line sales declined relative to October, but year-to-year growth held close to a record pace. Both trends indicate adjusting to staying home during the holiday had a bigger influence on retail spending and channel choice than traditional gift buying. Growth in ...

Key takeaways: Top-line sales were unchanged from the previous month, but growth from a year ago held close to the previous month’s record. Online growth likely set a monthly record based on the broader nonstore measure, partly at the expense of in-store sales. Online promotions that ...

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew at a record pace in September, fed by strong online and in-store growth. Spending at consumables-focused retailers improved, signaling that job gains are outweighing lower unemployment benefits. Home improvement and sporting goods remained the fastest-growing ...

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew strongly on a year-to-year basis even though it was flat month to month. August’s positive trend supports Kantar’s just-released holiday forecast for higher growth in the holiday fourth quarter relative to a year ago despite shoppers pointing ...

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew rapidly in July, driven by a stay-at-home and stay-busy mindset rather than back-to-school shopping in stores. Apparel and department store retailers are struggling to get back-to-school shoppers into stores, but some are likely doing strong online. Items ...

Key takeaways: Top-line growth surged in June, but shoppers’ dollars flooded into the online, grocery, and home improvement channels, rather than helping previously struggling channels recover. Strong sales growth in the consumables-focused channels is increasingly being driven by ...

Key takeaways:  Even with a return to top-line retail sales growth, modest growth is expected in the coming months as high unemployment remains. Online and home improvement were among the biggest beneficiaries of stimulus checks that went out starting in mid-April. Shoppers were slow ...

Key takeaways:  The record top-line decline partly reflects a broader rollout of government policies to close nonessential businesses in April. Spending on consumables remained abnormally high but faded relative to March. This trend was evident in the grocery channel. However, drugstores ...

Necessity spurs quick action and innovation. Grocery stores and other retailers’ efforts to combat the adverse effects of COVID-19 illustrate this concept. In April, Publix exemplified quick action and innovation when it rolled out contactless payment across its stores, including its new ...