Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • Holiday 2016: Channel and Category Sales Results - Updated
    This publication features updated government-reported holiday results for a dozen retail sales channels and ten categories which were initially ...
  • January Retail Sales: Mostly Positive Start to the New Year
    According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in January. But shoppers were less sanguine according to some measures. This article ...
  • Shoppers’ Budgets take some Hits early in the Year
    Several factors are conspiring to push shoppers against the ropes in early 2017.
  • U.S. Macro Outlook: Demand in 2017 Dampened by Higher Gasoline Prices
    This slide deck features Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. macro outlook for the 2017 sales season. The current and future macro landscape is painted ...
  • Similar Holiday Growth? It Probably Doesn’t Feel Like it to Most Retailers
    Even though by most topline measures the holiday was similar to last year that’s not likely how most retailers are characterizing it as online ...
  • Global Macro Outlook
    The recently updated global macro outlook indicates growth for retailers and suppliers in 2017 won’t be uniform across the largest global markets.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

January Retail Sales: Mostly Positive Start to the New Year

16 Feb 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in January. But shoppers were less sanguine according to some measures. This article dissects this contradiction and what it means for the 2017 outlook.

 
ARTICLE

December Retail Sales: Holiday Growth Slows as In-Store Promotions Taper Off

26 Jan 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth slowed in December. Spending plans slipped a bit toward the end of the holiday period, but the competitive factors discussed in this article are what left a lasting imprint from the holiday season.

 
ARTICLE

November Retail Sales: Growth Moderates—Holiday still on Pace to Top Last Year

19 Dec 2016

  By: Doug Hermanson

Government-reported retail sales for November moderated, but holiday growth is still on pace to top last year. Online is led the trend toward improved growth this holiday, while most brick-and-mortar channels posted modest growth.

 
ARTICLE

October Retail Sales: Improved Growth Ahead of the Peak Holiday Season

22 Nov 2016

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in October after slumping in the previous three months. October spending plans improved despite heightened concerns about the election. However, there are other effects from the election which are already evident in mid-November.

 
ARTICLE

September Retail Sales: Modest Growth Weighed Down by Falling Food Prices

18 Oct 2016

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth slipped in September to its slowest rate this year. Food deflation intensified in September, dampening nominal growth. Spending plans also inched lower due to slower job growth.

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Topical Pulse

 
Summary Slides

Holiday 2016: Channel and Category Sales Results - Updated

22 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

This publication features updated government-reported holiday results for a dozen retail sales channels and ten categories which were initially published in January. It has been updated with actual results for some underlying channels and categories which were previously estimated by Kantar Retail.

 
Followers: 347

Several factors are conspiring to push shoppers against the ropes in early 2017. The combined effect of delayed tax refund checks, renewed gasoline inflation, and higher healthcare costs will cause consumer demand to stumble a bit in the first few months of the year, especially among low- ...

 
Followers: 347

Holiday retail sales growth matched last year’s moderate pace as steep price cuts once again hindered topline growth. For the second straight year, though, holiday demand was strong as shoppers took advantage of falling prices in most categories, including food. In August, Kantar ...

 
Summary Slides

2016 Retail Year in Review

6 Jan 2017

By: Kantar Retail Research Team, Mike Paglia, Diana Sheehan.  46 Slides

Kantar Retail’s 2016 Year in Review publication features all the major themes and events that shaped retail in 2016.

 
Followers: 347

The regional job market has been sharply divided in 2016 by industry trends — energy jobs are dragging down the South Central region, while housing construction and services jobs are boosting the Western and Southeastern regions. Well, retailers and suppliers should be aware of another ...

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Future Outlook

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Macro Outlook: Demand in 2017 Dampened by Higher Gasoline Prices

10 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  34 Slides

This slide deck features Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. macro outlook for the 2017 sales season. The current and future macro landscape is painted through a key implications slide, and over two dozen slides featuring macro data graphics and forecasts.

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar: Calibrating for 2017 - Macro Predictions, Retail Considerations

2 Feb 2017, 11:00 AM EST

The turn of the year is the most popular time to make resolutions to do better; the same is likely the case for those in the retail and supplier industry. Well, Kantar Retail is here to help. Tune into the first Emerging Macro Retail Trends webinar of the year to cement your understanding of the trends that defined the 2016 sales season, and more importantly how to adjust your strategies toward selling more in 2017. As part of this discussion, expect to learn: How the shifting macro ...

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s European Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Himanshu Pal, Kantar Retail Research Team.  35 Slides

Europe’s retail environment will confront disruption along three fronts in 2017: Economic and political; path to purchase and supply chain; and “We” versus “Me”. This report analyzes how these disruptions will reverberate across European markets, channels and retailers through the end of the decade.

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s U.S. Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Amy Koo, Kantar Retail Research Team.  51 Slides

Kantar Retail’s guide to U.S. macroeconomic, shopper, and retailer expectations will be a critical resource for companies developing plans for 2017+. This is one of three must read Kantar Retail expectations decks for 2017+.

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s Global Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Kantar Retail Research Team, Sara Al-Tukhaim.  48 Slides

Kantar Retail’s outlook for 2017+ spans eight global themes, 10 retailers, and six continents to equip retail players with the foresight to succeed amid the deceleration of global FMCG.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

Home Improvement Forecasts and Outlook

13 Oct 2016

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

Kantar Retail’s home improvement channel sales forecasts feature a breakout of sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms for the home centers, hardware stores, and other building specialty channels. Forecasts can be viewed in a summary slide or excel format.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q4 Outlook

1 Sep 2016

By: Doug Hermanson.  22 Slides

This channel forecast summary slide deck features forecasts for the holiday fourth quarter 2016 and annual 2017. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Followers: 347

It’s only August, but here at Kantar Retail we’ve already been in our holiday workshop putting together our 2016 holiday forecast. Too soon some of you say? Not for many of our retailer and supplier clients that are already in the late stages of planning for the biggest selling season ...

 
Webinar

Home Improvement Webinar: Seeking Opportunities in Key Inflection Points

11 Aug 2016, 01:00 PM EDT

The home improvement channel continues to see significant growth, as a result of continued strength in housing. The growth has opened opportunities to reach new shoppers, including those entering the market as first time home buyers, but also presents significant growth opportunities to engage shoppers as they make major transitions that lead to home investment, such as having children, moving to new houses, and even retiring and downsizing. In this webinar, join Kantar Retail's experts ...

 
Summary Slides

US Category Forecasts: Trends and Implications

25 May 2016

By: Doug Hermanson.  57 Slides

This summary slide deck features in depth implications and dozens of graphics for total category, and in store vs. online category forecasts. It follows an abbreviated deck and underlying forecast data files that were separately released earlier in 2016.

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