Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • Category forecasts to 2025
    Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.
  • May retail sales: Stimulus checks and reopenings revive growth
    Find out in this article which channels were among the biggest beneficiaries of stimulus checks.
  • April macro indicators: Severe deterioration
    Find out if the retail economy showed any signs of life in May after severe deterioration in April.
  • Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession
    Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.
  • Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview
    Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors ...
  • 2020 US macro outlook
    This summary slide deck presents graphics and insights supporting Kantar’s baseline channel forecasts and what a downmarket scenario might mean ...
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
Followers: 715

Key takeaways:  Even with a return to top-line retail sales growth, modest growth is expected in the coming months as high unemployment remains. Online and home improvement were among the biggest beneficiaries of stimulus checks that went out starting in mid-April. Shoppers were slow ...

 
ARTICLE

April macro indicators: Severe deterioration

2 Jun 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out if the retail economy showed any signs of life in May after severe deterioration in April.

 
Followers: 715

Key takeaways:  The record top-line decline partly reflects a broader rollout of government policies to close nonessential businesses in April. Spending on consumables remained abnormally high but faded relative to March. This trend was evident in the grocery channel. However, drugstores ...

 
ARTICLE

March macro indicators: Economic storm to quickly engulf retail

29 Apr 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

After total retail managed positive growth in March, a storm of negative factors suggests the retail market faces a tougher April.

 
Followers: 715

Key takeaways: Top-line growth picked up as stocking up outweighed the large number of physical stores closed due to social-distancing policies. Stock-up sales fed record growth in the combined consumables-focused channels and perhaps the home improvement channel. Shoppers didn’t ...

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Topical Pulse

 
Summary Slides

Kantar’s COVID-19 webinar series: Forecasting the future

8 May 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Jim Leonard, Patrick Fellin, Todd Szahun.  39 Slides

How should you think about the recovery and approach 2020-2021 forecasts? During this webinar, Patrick Fellin and Jim Leonard discuss the various inputs, outline the unknowns, and map the multiple futures you need to plan for.

 
Summary Slides

Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession

24 Apr 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  20 Slides

Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.

 
Followers: 715

COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, has emerged as the pernicious element that has often contributed to past US recessions — an unpredictable and hard-to-quantify global event. The global disease joins the two other common recession ingredients — shifting policies ...

 
Followers: 715

A delay in the processing of tax refunds has likely dampen retail sales growth in the first two months of 2020. Cash Flow consumers are likely the most directly affected given they have limited savings to fall back on. Suppliers and retailers that operate in the discounter or mass/value channels ...

 
Followers: 182

Despite the increasing numbers of cases of COVID-19 across Asia, the top fear is not falling sick but the threat that the virus may hurt individuals’ financial health, according to a recent study* conducted by Kantar.  As the global financial markets plummet in what seems to be the ...

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Future Outlook

 
Followers: 44

Necessity spurs quick action and innovation. Grocery stores and other retailers’ efforts to combat the adverse effects of COVID-19 illustrate this concept. In April, Publix exemplified quick action and innovation when it rolled out contactless payment across its stores, including its new ...

 
Summary Slides

COVID impact on wellness & beauty channels

30 Apr 2020

By: Kelly Petropoulou, Paida Mugudubi.  23 Slides

Comparing and contrasting the pre- and post-pandemic landscape, this report considers the lasting impacts of lockdown on the space and how this will affect shopper behaviour, the brands they choose and how they purchase once the crisis passes.

 
Summary Slides

2020 US macro outlook

18 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  32 Slides

This summary slide deck presents graphics and insights supporting Kantar’s baseline channel forecasts and what a downmarket scenario might mean for growth and shoppers.

 
Followers: 182

In a society with so much focus on millennials, we have almost forgotten another, even more promising generation: seniors. Brands and distributors have not yet developed customer relations adapted to the over-55s and there are few specific offers that appeal to rather than stigmatise the elderly. ...

 
Summary Slides

2020+ European retail outlook

15 Jan 2020

By: Kantar Research Team, Derya Guvenc.  68 Slides

Kantar’s 2020+ European Retail Outlook report will help brands prioritise investment, allocate resources in the right places and capture new incremental growth while driving volume. For all CPG functions, this delivers a holistic overview of the forces at play now and in the future across Europe.

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Market Forecasts

 
ARTICLE

May macro indicators: The recovery starts the long road back

30 Jun 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out in this article which macro and consumer indicators have improved and what pitfalls lie ahead for the retail economy.

 
Summary Slides

Category forecasts to 2025

25 Jun 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  21 Slides

Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview

25 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Ellie Pinto.  22 Slides

Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors will influence Canadian retail.

 
ARTICLE

COVID-19 casts shadow over 2020 US retail forecast

11 Mar 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar’s just-released 2020 macro channel forecasts provide valuable insights on the competitive retail environment. We detail the assumptions, results, and implications for retailers and suppliers in this article.

 
Summary Slides

US eCommerce outlook: Category group forecasts

10 Dec 2019

By: Doug Hermanson.  10 Slides

See Kantar’s U.S. online and in-store category spending forecasts to 2024. In addition, gain access to all data and charts for 15 online categories.

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