Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • Mixed Improvement Expected in Holiday 2017
    The focus of the retail industry will be quickly turning from the back-to-school season to the winter holidays. Kantar Retail’s newly minted holiday ...
  • July Retail Sales: Back-to-School Sales Get Off to a Solid Start
    According to government-reported sales results, growth picked up to a 13-month high in July. Find out in this article what channels drove the ...
  • U.S. Macro Outlook: Upper-Income Households to Drive Third-Quarter Growth
    This slide deck features an outlook for the macro, retail, and shopper environment in the third quarter. The current and future macro landscape ...
  • U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q3 Outlook
    Forecasts for the back-to-school quarter by channel are featured in this summary slide deck. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, ...
  • Back-to-School Growth Will Top Last Year’s
    Back-to-school shoppers will be spending a little more this year, but the benefits to specific retailers and channels will be cut across income ...
  • U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts
    This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

July Retail Sales: Back-to-School Sales Get Off to a Solid Start

23 Aug 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth picked up to a 13-month high in July. Find out in this article what channels drove the growth and if growth at this pace is expected to continue throughout the back-to-school sales period.

 
ARTICLE

June Retail Sales: Slow Growth Despite Improved Spending Intentions

25 Jul 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth deteriorated in June. Find out what this means for the upcoming back-to-school sales period in this article.

 
ARTICLE

May Retail Sales: Retail Struggles to Break From Moderate Growth

23 Jun 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, top-line growth moved a bit lower in May despite shopper spending plans holding firm. Lean more about the channel and macro trends which shaped the May results in this article.

 
ARTICLE

April Retail Sales: Top-Line Growth Holds Firm Despite Weaker Consumables Channels

17 May 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, topline growth stayed firm in April, but consumables channels lagged. This article presents the results and discusses what macro and competitive factors may have caused channel trends to diverge.

 
ARTICLE

March Retail Sales: A Solid Start to the Spring Selling Season

18 Apr 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth kept a solid clip in March. Find out what channels and macro metrics drove growth at the start of spring selling season in this article.

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Topical Pulse

 
Followers: 356

The focus of the retail industry will be quickly turning in September from the back-to-school season to the winter holidays. Kantar Retail’s newly minted holiday 2017 forecast indicates retailers and suppliers should look to the holiday with divided expectations. Upscale and value-based ...

 
Webinar

US Home Improvement Webinar: Hiding in Plain Sight: Tapping Into Home Improvement Spending Potential

2 Aug 2017, 01:00 PM EDT

Baby Boomers and pro contractors have long made up the backbone of home improvement retailers' shopper bases. In the midst of a great deal of change, these groups continue to represent key opportunities for retailers to shift their approaches, deepen connections, and drive more spending. As part of this discussion, attendees can expect to learn: Kantar Retail's latest forecasts for home improvement performance this year and beyond How Boomers' potential for home improvement spending ...

 
Followers: 356

After retail sales growth in Texas was bucked off its horse by the oil market in 2015, it has saddled back up. Retail sales estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas show year-to-year growth emerged in September 2016 following declines in the prior 13 months. The most recent data ...

 
Followers: 356

We’ve heard from many CPG clients within the past couple weeks indicating they’ve seen a steep decline in category performance in the United States in January and February based on point of sale data. Triangulating between Kantar Retail’s shopper, macro, and retail data; ...

 
Summary Slides

Holiday 2016: Channel and Category Sales Results - Updated

22 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

This publication features updated government-reported holiday results for a dozen retail sales channels and ten categories which were initially published in January. It has been updated with actual results for some underlying channels and categories which were previously estimated by Kantar Retail.

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Future Outlook

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar: Kantar Retail's Holiday 2017 Forecast: Netting Out Sales Amid the Crosswinds

30 Aug 2017, 11:00 AM EDT

The performances of many retailers were upended last holiday by online' s dominance, government-related disruptions, and heightened shopper demands. Retailers should expect these winds of change to grow stronger this holiday. Tune in to this webinar for the unveiling of Kantar Retail's 2017 holiday forecast and hear our perspective on how retailers and suppliers should navigate these crosswinds during the biggest selling season of the year. As part of this discussion, expect to learn: The ...

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Macro Outlook: Upper-Income Households to Drive Third-Quarter Growth

17 Aug 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  27 Slides

This slide deck features an outlook for the macro, retail, and shopper environment in the third quarter. The current and future macro landscape is painted through a key implications slide, and over two dozen slides featuring data, graphics, and forecasts.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian Macroeconomic and Retail Sales Brief

7 Jul 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk.  10 Slides

Canada’s retail market is on the upswing, but there are risks and challenges that remain. This brief provides an updated summary of the market conditions and implications retailers and suppliers need to know.

 
Followers: 0

According to Focus Economics, regional GDP growth estimates for Q1 fall somewhere around 2.5% YoY, below the 3.0% experienced in Q4. Economies are enjoying the benefit of slightly higher oil prices and fiscal consolidation, increased efforts for peace in Yemen and the slowly receding strength ...

 
Summary Slides

Essential Macro Insights for Retail Planning

25 May 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  50 Slides

This session will provide the critical macro insights needed to identify the challenges and opportunities for growth.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

2017 Winter Holiday Forecasts

15 Sep 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

Select U.S. forecasts for the winter holiday quarter are featured in this summary slide deck. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q3 Outlook

7 Aug 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  10 Slides

Forecasts for the back-to-school quarter by channel are featured in this summary slide deck. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts

19 Jun 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk.  12 Slides

This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.

 
ARTICLE

Five Retail Implications From Category Trends

4 May 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. category forecasts indicate the future of retail will look less familiar and in some ways will be even more challenging than the previous five years. This article presents five of the biggest implications from these market-altering category trends.

 
Summary Slides

Home Improvement Forecasts and Outlook

25 Apr 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  12 Slides

Kantar Retail’s home improvement channel sales forecasts feature a breakout of sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms for the home centers, hardware stores, and other building specialty channels. Forecasts can be viewed in a summary slide or excel format.

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