Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • June retail sales: Some channels surge while others struggled
    Top-line growth surged in June, but shoppers’ dollars flooded into only a small share of retail channels. Find out in this article which channels ...
  • May macro indicators: The recovery starts the long road back
    Find out in this article which macro and consumer indicators have improved and what pitfalls lie ahead for the retail economy.
  • Category forecasts to 2025
    Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.
  • Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession
    Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
Followers: 739

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew at a record pace in September, fed by strong online and in-store growth. Spending at consumables-focused retailers improved, signaling that job gains are outweighing lower unemployment benefits. Home improvement and sporting goods remained the fastest-growing ...

 
Followers: 739

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew strongly on a year-to-year basis even though it was flat month to month. August’s positive trend supports Kantar’s just-released holiday forecast for higher growth in the holiday fourth quarter relative to a year ago despite shoppers pointing ...

 
ARTICLE

July macro indicators: Policy change threatens momentum

27 Aug 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Many macro indicators strengthened in July, but the expiration of higher unemployment benefits could jeopardize further recovery.

 
Followers: 739

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew rapidly in July, driven by a stay-at-home and stay-busy mindset rather than back-to-school shopping in stores. Apparel and department store retailers are struggling to get back-to-school shoppers into stores, but some are likely doing strong online. Items ...

 
ARTICLE

June macro indicators: Retail’s rebound remains an outlier

5 Aug 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out why retail’s resurgence doesn’t tell the full story of the consumer economy and why this is important even for fast-growing retail channels.

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Topical Pulse

 
Summary Slides

Macro essentials to build home improvement sales amid COVID-19

16 Jul 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  37 Slides

We reveal the macro trends, leading indicators, and home improvement channel forecasts you need to formulate your sales plans.

 
Summary Slides

Kantar’s COVID-19 webinar series: Forecasting the future

8 May 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Jim Leonard, Patrick Fellin, Todd Szahun.  39 Slides

How should you think about the recovery and approach 2020-2021 forecasts? During this webinar, Patrick Fellin and Jim Leonard discuss the various inputs, outline the unknowns, and map the multiple futures you need to plan for.

 
Summary Slides

Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession

24 Apr 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  20 Slides

Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.

 
Followers: 739

COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, has emerged as the pernicious element that has often contributed to past US recessions — an unpredictable and hard-to-quantify global event. The global disease joins the two other common recession ingredients — shifting policies ...

 
Followers: 739

A delay in the processing of tax refunds has likely dampen retail sales growth in the first two months of 2020. Cash Flow consumers are likely the most directly affected given they have limited savings to fall back on. Suppliers and retailers that operate in the discounter or mass/value channels ...

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Future Outlook

 
Summary Slides

Recovery or relapse? Macro planning for an uncertain 2021

7 Oct 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  26 Slides

Explore the good, bad, and ugly macro trends affecting Target shoppers as well as forecasts for the holiday season and 2021.

 
ARTICLE

August macro indicators: Holding steady

2 Oct 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

The economy maintained some momentum even after enhanced unemployment benefits expired. What do these trends suggest for September?

 
Summary Slides

Macro view: Mapping the economic roller-coaster ride for 2020-21

6 Aug 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  27 Slides

Review macro conditions, the potential shape of the recovery into 2021, and our baseline consumables and holiday forecasts.

 
Followers: 83

Necessity spurs quick action and innovation. Grocery stores and other retailers’ efforts to combat the adverse effects of COVID-19 illustrate this concept. In April, Publix exemplified quick action and innovation when it rolled out contactless payment across its stores, including its new ...

 
Summary Slides

COVID impact on wellness & beauty channels

30 Apr 2020

By: Kelly Petropoulou, Paida Mugudubi.  23 Slides

Comparing and contrasting the pre- and post-pandemic landscape, this report considers the lasting impacts of lockdown on the space and how this will affect shopper behaviour, the brands they choose and how they purchase once the crisis passes.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian macroeconomic and shopper trends

24 Sep 2020

By: David Marcotte.  51 Slides

As Canada recovers from COVID-19, review the major macro indicators and where brands and retailers can find near- and long-term growth.

 
ARTICLE

May macro indicators: The recovery starts the long road back

30 Jun 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out in this article which macro and consumer indicators have improved and what pitfalls lie ahead for the retail economy.

 
Summary Slides

Category forecasts to 2025

25 Jun 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  21 Slides

Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview

25 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Ellie Pinto.  22 Slides

Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors will influence Canadian retail.

 
ARTICLE

COVID-19 casts shadow over 2020 US retail forecast

11 Mar 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar’s just-released 2020 macro channel forecasts provide valuable insights on the competitive retail environment. We detail the assumptions, results, and implications for retailers and suppliers in this article.

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