Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • April retail sales: A record decline
    Some channels still managed double-digit growth amid a record drop in top-line retail sales in April. Find out more here.
  • March macro indicators: Economic storm to quickly engulf retail
    After total retail managed positive growth in March, a storm of negative factors suggests the retail market faces a tougher April.
  • Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession
    Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.
  • Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview
    Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors ...
  • 2020 US macro outlook
    This summary slide deck presents graphics and insights supporting Kantar’s baseline channel forecasts and what a downmarket scenario might mean ...
  • Recession risks rise due to COVID-19
    COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, has emerged as a threat to economic growth in North America. Here’s an assessment of its ...
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
Followers: 711

Key takeaways:  The record top-line decline partly reflects a broader rollout of government policies to close nonessential businesses in April. Spending on consumables remained abnormally high but faded relative to March. This trend was evident in the grocery channel. However, drugstores ...

 
ARTICLE

March macro indicators: Economic storm to quickly engulf retail

29 Apr 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

After total retail managed positive growth in March, a storm of negative factors suggests the retail market faces a tougher April.

 
Followers: 711

Key takeaways: Top-line growth picked up as stocking up outweighed the large number of physical stores closed due to social-distancing policies. Stock-up sales fed record growth in the combined consumables-focused channels and perhaps the home improvement channel. Shoppers didn’t ...

 
ARTICLE

February-March macro indicators: COVID-19 saps economic strength

9 Apr 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Key macro indicators show that February’s mostly positive trends were upended in March by the impact of COVID-19. Find out how your sales performance may be affected.

 
Followers: 711

Key takeaways  Shoppers surveyed through ShopperScape® around the time the stock market selloff began in late February signaled they were keeping their spending plans steady. Top-line retail growth benefited a great deal from a comparison to very weak growth in the year-ago period ...

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Topical Pulse

 
Summary Slides

Kantar’s COVID-19 webinar series: Forecasting the future

8 May 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Jim Leonard, Patrick Fellin, Todd Szahun.  39 Slides

How should you think about the recovery and approach 2020-2021 forecasts? During this webinar, Patrick Fellin and Jim Leonard discuss the various inputs, outline the unknowns, and map the multiple futures you need to plan for.

 
Summary Slides

Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession

24 Apr 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  20 Slides

Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.

 
Followers: 711

COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, has emerged as the pernicious element that has often contributed to past US recessions — an unpredictable and hard-to-quantify global event. The global disease joins the two other common recession ingredients — shifting policies ...

 
Followers: 711

A delay in the processing of tax refunds has likely dampen retail sales growth in the first two months of 2020. Cash Flow consumers are likely the most directly affected given they have limited savings to fall back on. Suppliers and retailers that operate in the discounter or mass/value channels ...

 
Followers: 174

Despite the increasing numbers of cases of COVID-19 across Asia, the top fear is not falling sick but the threat that the virus may hurt individuals’ financial health, according to a recent study* conducted by Kantar.  As the global financial markets plummet in what seems to be the ...

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Future Outlook

 
Followers: 39

Necessity spurs quick action and innovation. Grocery stores and other retailers’ efforts to combat the adverse effects of COVID-19 illustrate this concept. In April, Publix exemplified quick action and innovation when it rolled out contactless payment across its stores, including its new ...

 
Summary Slides

COVID impact on wellness & beauty channels

30 Apr 2020

By: Kelly Petropoulou, Paida Mugudubi.  23 Slides

Comparing and contrasting the pre- and post-pandemic landscape, this report considers the lasting impacts of lockdown on the space and how this will affect shopper behaviour, the brands they choose and how they purchase once the crisis passes.

 
Summary Slides

2020 US macro outlook

18 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  32 Slides

This summary slide deck presents graphics and insights supporting Kantar’s baseline channel forecasts and what a downmarket scenario might mean for growth and shoppers.

 
Followers: 174

In a society with so much focus on millennials, we have almost forgotten another, even more promising generation: seniors. Brands and distributors have not yet developed customer relations adapted to the over-55s and there are few specific offers that appeal to rather than stigmatise the elderly. ...

 
Summary Slides

2020+ European retail outlook

15 Jan 2020

By: Kantar Research Team, Derya Guvenc.  68 Slides

Kantar’s 2020+ European Retail Outlook report will help brands prioritise investment, allocate resources in the right places and capture new incremental growth while driving volume. For all CPG functions, this delivers a holistic overview of the forces at play now and in the future across Europe.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview

25 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Ellie Pinto.  22 Slides

Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors will influence Canadian retail.

 
ARTICLE

COVID-19 casts shadow over 2020 US retail forecast

11 Mar 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar’s just-released 2020 macro channel forecasts provide valuable insights on the competitive retail environment. We detail the assumptions, results, and implications for retailers and suppliers in this article.

 
Summary Slides

US eCommerce outlook: Category group forecasts

10 Dec 2019

By: Doug Hermanson.  10 Slides

See Kantar’s U.S. online and in-store category spending forecasts to 2024. In addition, gain access to all data and charts for 15 online categories.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview

13 Sep 2019

By: Doug Hermanson, Ellie Pinto.  20 Slides

Our most recent insights on Canada’s macroeconomic health include a look at housing affordability, consumer confidence, household spending, growth by region, and more.

 
ARTICLE

Slower back-to-school quarter expected in 2019

17 Jul 2019

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar has just released its quarterly retail channel forecasts with a heightened focus on the back-to-school third quarter. Find out how to access the forecasts and what macro trends will shape retail in the coming months.

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