Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • June retail sales: Some channels surge while others struggled
    Top-line growth surged in June, but shoppers’ dollars flooded into only a small share of retail channels. Find out in this article which channels ...
  • May macro indicators: The recovery starts the long road back
    Find out in this article which macro and consumer indicators have improved and what pitfalls lie ahead for the retail economy.
  • Category forecasts to 2025
    Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.
  • Retail macro implications for this uniquely disruptive recession
    Explore how macro trends and their retail implications compare with the Great Recession and economic scenarios to apply to your plans.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

September macro indicators: Retail, housing lead recovery

6 Nov 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

With the holiday sales period already underway, we analyze the latest trends in spending plans, the job market, and the housing market.

 
Followers: 746

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew at a record pace in September, fed by strong online and in-store growth. Spending at consumables-focused retailers improved, signaling that job gains are outweighing lower unemployment benefits. Home improvement and sporting goods remained the fastest-growing ...

 
Followers: 746

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew strongly on a year-to-year basis even though it was flat month to month. August’s positive trend supports Kantar’s just-released holiday forecast for higher growth in the holiday fourth quarter relative to a year ago despite shoppers pointing ...

 
ARTICLE

July macro indicators: Policy change threatens momentum

27 Aug 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Many macro indicators strengthened in July, but the expiration of higher unemployment benefits could jeopardize further recovery.

 
Followers: 746

Key takeaways: Top-line sales grew rapidly in July, driven by a stay-at-home and stay-busy mindset rather than back-to-school shopping in stores. Apparel and department store retailers are struggling to get back-to-school shoppers into stores, but some are likely doing strong online. Items ...

View All

Topical Pulse

 
Summary Slides

2020 US retail year in review

4 Jan 2021

By: Kantar Research Team.  42 Slides

Kantar recaps the major macro, shopper, and retailer themes and developments that shaped a tumultuous year for the retail industry.

 
Followers: 746

Key takeaways: November top-line sales declined relative to October, but year-to-year growth held close to a record pace. Both trends indicate adjusting to staying home during the holiday had a bigger influence on retail spending and channel choice than traditional gift buying. Growth in ...

 
Summary Slides

COVID-19 economic patterns: Uncertainty and opportunity

9 Dec 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Timothy Campbell.  37 Slides

We survey how COVID-19 has affected shoppers’ spending ability, how different income segments are reacting to the pandemic, and more.

 
Followers: 746

Key takeaways: Top-line sales were unchanged from the previous month, but growth from a year ago held close to the previous month’s record. Online growth likely set a monthly record based on the broader nonstore measure, partly at the expense of in-store sales. Online promotions that ...

 
Summary Slides

Recovery or relapse? Macro planning for an uncertain 2021

17 Nov 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  21 Slides

Explore good, bad, and ugly macro trends affecting Walmart shoppers plus forecasts and economic scenarios for the holiday and 2021.

View All

Future Outlook

 
ARTICLE

Holiday macro conditions report: First take

6 Jan 2021

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out in this article if the latest macro indictors point to a strong or weak holiday for retail.

 
Summary Slides

The aftermath: COVID-19’s lasting macro effects

9 Dec 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  24 Slides

As the COVID-19 crisis passes, find out which parts of the retail economy will need to be rebuilt, torn down, or left behind.

 
Summary Slides

Commerce Now: The economy and channel choice going into 2021

3 Dec 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Simon Johnstone, Todd Szahun.  26 Slides

2020 was a polarizing year for retail and 2021 promises to be a year of continued uncertainty. There are several macroeconomic and behavioral factors that will impact the trajectory of U.S. retail in 2021.

 
Summary Slides

2020 US holiday macro outlook

2 Nov 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  34 Slides

Policy and the job market will influence the holiday outlook. Learn more about these topics and view Kantar’s forecasts in this deck.

 
Summary Slides

Recovery or relapse? Macro planning for an uncertain 2021

7 Oct 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  26 Slides

Explore the good, bad, and ugly macro trends affecting Target shoppers as well as forecasts for the holiday season and 2021.

View All

Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian macroeconomic and shopper trends

24 Sep 2020

By: David Marcotte.  51 Slides

As Canada recovers from COVID-19, review the major macro indicators and where brands and retailers can find near- and long-term growth.

 
ARTICLE

May macro indicators: The recovery starts the long road back

30 Jun 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Find out in this article which macro and consumer indicators have improved and what pitfalls lie ahead for the retail economy.

 
Summary Slides

Category forecasts to 2025

25 Jun 2020

By: Doug Hermanson.  21 Slides

Social distancing and the economic downturn will have a pronounced effect on US category performance. Have a look in this summary slide deck.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian macroeconomic and retail sales overview

25 Mar 2020

By: Doug Hermanson, Ellie Pinto.  22 Slides

Several market disruptions, including COVID-19, have recently erupted in Canada. Check out how these disruptions and other macroeconomic factors will influence Canadian retail.

 
ARTICLE

COVID-19 casts shadow over 2020 US retail forecast

11 Mar 2020

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar’s just-released 2020 macro channel forecasts provide valuable insights on the competitive retail environment. We detail the assumptions, results, and implications for retailers and suppliers in this article.

View All