Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q2 Outlook
    Curious what spring has in store? This channel forecast summary slide deck features forecasts for the second quarter. Data for all underlying ...
  • February Retail Sales: Solid Growth Despite Diverging Shopper Confidence
    According to government-reported sales results, growth was solid in February. But growth was uneven across retailers and regions given diverging ...
  • Shoppers’ Budgets take some Hits early in the Year
    Several factors are conspiring to push shoppers against the ropes in early 2017.
  • U.S. Macro Outlook: Demand in 2017 Dampened by Higher Gasoline Prices
    This slide deck features Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. macro outlook for the 2017 sales season. The current and future macro landscape is painted ...
  • Similar Holiday Growth? It Probably Doesn’t Feel Like it to Most Retailers
    Even though by most topline measures the holiday was similar to last year that’s not likely how most retailers are characterizing it as online ...
  • Global Macro Outlook
    The recently updated global macro outlook indicates growth for retailers and suppliers in 2017 won’t be uniform across the largest global markets.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

February Retail Sales: Solid Growth Despite Diverging Shopper Confidence

16 Mar 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth was solid in February. But growth was uneven across retailers and regions given diverging shopper confidence.

 
ARTICLE

January Retail Sales: Mostly Positive Start to the New Year

16 Feb 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in January. But shoppers were less sanguine according to some measures. This article dissects this contradiction and what it means for the 2017 outlook.

 
ARTICLE

December Retail Sales: Holiday Growth Slows as In-Store Promotions Taper Off

26 Jan 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth slowed in December. Spending plans slipped a bit toward the end of the holiday period, but the competitive factors discussed in this article are what left a lasting imprint from the holiday season.

 
ARTICLE

November Retail Sales: Growth Moderates—Holiday still on Pace to Top Last Year

19 Dec 2016

  By: Doug Hermanson

Government-reported retail sales for November moderated, but holiday growth is still on pace to top last year. Online is led the trend toward improved growth this holiday, while most brick-and-mortar channels posted modest growth.

 
ARTICLE

October Retail Sales: Improved Growth Ahead of the Peak Holiday Season

22 Nov 2016

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in October after slumping in the previous three months. October spending plans improved despite heightened concerns about the election. However, there are other effects from the election which are already evident in mid-November.

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Topical Pulse

 
Followers: 353

We’ve heard from many CPG clients within the past couple weeks indicating they’ve seen a steep decline in category performance in the United States in January and February based on point of sale data. Triangulating between Kantar Retail’s shopper, macro, and retail data; ...

 
Summary Slides

Holiday 2016: Channel and Category Sales Results - Updated

22 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

This publication features updated government-reported holiday results for a dozen retail sales channels and ten categories which were initially published in January. It has been updated with actual results for some underlying channels and categories which were previously estimated by Kantar Retail.

 
Followers: 353

Several factors are conspiring to push shoppers against the ropes in early 2017. The combined effect of delayed tax refund checks, renewed gasoline inflation, and higher healthcare costs will cause consumer demand to stumble a bit in the first few months of the year, especially among low- ...

 
Followers: 353

Holiday retail sales growth matched last year’s moderate pace as steep price cuts once again hindered topline growth. For the second straight year, though, holiday demand was strong as shoppers took advantage of falling prices in most categories, including food. In August, Kantar ...

 
Summary Slides

2016 Retail Year in Review

6 Jan 2017

By: Kantar Retail Research Team, Mike Paglia, Diana Sheehan.  46 Slides

Kantar Retail’s 2016 Year in Review publication features all the major themes and events that shaped retail in 2016.

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Future Outlook

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Macro Outlook: Demand in 2017 Dampened by Higher Gasoline Prices

10 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  34 Slides

This slide deck features Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. macro outlook for the 2017 sales season. The current and future macro landscape is painted through a key implications slide, and over two dozen slides featuring macro data graphics and forecasts.

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar: Calibrating for 2017 - Macro Predictions, Retail Considerations

2 Feb 2017, 11:00 AM EST

The turn of the year is the most popular time to make resolutions to do better; the same is likely the case for those in the retail and supplier industry. Well, Kantar Retail is here to help. Tune into the first Emerging Macro Retail Trends webinar of the year to cement your understanding of the trends that defined the 2016 sales season, and more importantly how to adjust your strategies toward selling more in 2017. As part of this discussion, expect to learn: How the shifting macro ...

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s European Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Himanshu Pal, Kantar Retail Research Team.  35 Slides

Europe’s retail environment will confront disruption along three fronts in 2017: Economic and political; path to purchase and supply chain; and “We” versus “Me”. This report analyzes how these disruptions will reverberate across European markets, channels and retailers through the end of the decade.

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s U.S. Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Amy Koo, Kantar Retail Research Team.  51 Slides

Kantar Retail’s guide to U.S. macroeconomic, shopper, and retailer expectations will be a critical resource for companies developing plans for 2017+. This is one of three must read Kantar Retail expectations decks for 2017+.

 
Summary Slides

Kantar Retail’s Global Outlook for 2017+

17 Jan 2017

By: Kantar Retail Research Team, Sara Al-Tukhaim.  48 Slides

Kantar Retail’s outlook for 2017+ spans eight global themes, 10 retailers, and six continents to equip retail players with the foresight to succeed amid the deceleration of global FMCG.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q2 Outlook

23 Mar 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

Curious what spring has in store? This channel forecast summary slide deck features forecasts for the second quarter. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Webinar

US Home Improvement Webinar: The Connected Home Story and Macro Trends for 2017

9 Mar 2017, 01:00 PM EST

"Stress-free" continues to be the shopping mantra of 2017. In the search for convenience and ease, shoppers are seeking out new and innovative ways to remove friction from their lives, and increasingly their homes. From smart thermostats to home security systems, connected home technology provides shoppers with new alternatives for home maintenance and stress-free living. With Kantar Retail's lead economist expecting positive macro tailwinds in 2017, The Home Depot and Lowe's will be frontrunners ...

 
Summary Slides

Home Improvement Forecasts and Outlook

13 Oct 2016

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

Kantar Retail’s home improvement channel sales forecasts feature a breakout of sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms for the home centers, hardware stores, and other building specialty channels. Forecasts can be viewed in a summary slide or excel format.

 
Followers: 353

It’s only August, but here at Kantar Retail we’ve already been in our holiday workshop putting together our 2016 holiday forecast. Too soon some of you say? Not for many of our retailer and supplier clients that are already in the late stages of planning for the biggest selling season ...

 
Webinar

Home Improvement Webinar: Seeking Opportunities in Key Inflection Points

11 Aug 2016, 01:00 PM EDT

The home improvement channel continues to see significant growth, as a result of continued strength in housing. The growth has opened opportunities to reach new shoppers, including those entering the market as first time home buyers, but also presents significant growth opportunities to engage shoppers as they make major transitions that lead to home investment, such as having children, moving to new houses, and even retiring and downsizing. In this webinar, join Kantar Retail's experts ...

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