Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • Canadian Macroeconomic and Retail Sales Brief
    Canada’s retail market is on the upswing, but there are risks and challenges that remain. This brief provides an updated summary of the market ...
  • May Retail Sales: Retail Struggles to Break From Moderate Growth
    According to government-reported sales results, top-line growth moved a bit lower in May despite shopper spending plans holding firm. Lean more ...
  • U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts
    This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.
  • Essential Macro Insights for Retail Planning
    This session will provide the critical macro insights needed to identify the challenges and opportunities for growth.
  • Five Retail Implications From Category Trends
    Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. category forecasts indicate the future of retail will look less familiar and in some ways will be even more challenging ...
  • U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q2 Outlook
    Curious what spring has in store? This channel forecast summary slide deck features forecasts for the second quarter. Data for all underlying ...
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

May Retail Sales: Retail Struggles to Break From Moderate Growth

23 Jun 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, top-line growth moved a bit lower in May despite shopper spending plans holding firm. Lean more about the channel and macro trends which shaped the May results in this article.

 
ARTICLE

April Retail Sales: Top-Line Growth Holds Firm Despite Weaker Consumables Channels

17 May 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, topline growth stayed firm in April, but consumables channels lagged. This article presents the results and discusses what macro and competitive factors may have caused channel trends to diverge.

 
ARTICLE

March Retail Sales: A Solid Start to the Spring Selling Season

18 Apr 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth kept a solid clip in March. Find out what channels and macro metrics drove growth at the start of spring selling season in this article.

 
ARTICLE

February Retail Sales: Solid Growth Despite Diverging Shopper Confidence

16 Mar 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth was solid in February. But growth was uneven across retailers and regions given diverging shopper confidence.

 
ARTICLE

January Retail Sales: Mostly Positive Start to the New Year

16 Feb 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

According to government-reported sales results, growth improved in January. But shoppers were less sanguine according to some measures. This article dissects this contradiction and what it means for the 2017 outlook.

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Topical Pulse

 
Followers: 354

After retail sales growth in Texas was bucked off its horse by the oil market in 2015, it has saddled back up. Retail sales estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas show year-to-year growth emerged in September 2016 following declines in the prior 13 months. The most recent data ...

 
Followers: 354

We’ve heard from many CPG clients within the past couple weeks indicating they’ve seen a steep decline in category performance in the United States in January and February based on point of sale data. Triangulating between Kantar Retail’s shopper, macro, and retail data; ...

 
Summary Slides

Holiday 2016: Channel and Category Sales Results - Updated

22 Feb 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

This publication features updated government-reported holiday results for a dozen retail sales channels and ten categories which were initially published in January. It has been updated with actual results for some underlying channels and categories which were previously estimated by Kantar Retail.

 
Followers: 354

Several factors are conspiring to push shoppers against the ropes in early 2017. The combined effect of delayed tax refund checks, renewed gasoline inflation, and higher healthcare costs will cause consumer demand to stumble a bit in the first few months of the year, especially among low- ...

 
Followers: 354

Holiday retail sales growth matched last year’s moderate pace as steep price cuts once again hindered topline growth. For the second straight year, though, holiday demand was strong as shoppers took advantage of falling prices in most categories, including food. In August, Kantar ...

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Future Outlook

 
Summary Slides

Canadian Macroeconomic and Retail Sales Brief

7 Jul 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk.  10 Slides

Canada’s retail market is on the upswing, but there are risks and challenges that remain. This brief provides an updated summary of the market conditions and implications retailers and suppliers need to know.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts

19 Jun 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk.  12 Slides

This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.

 
Followers: 0

According to Focus Economics, regional GDP growth estimates for Q1 fall somewhere around 2.5% YoY, below the 3.0% experienced in Q4. Economies are enjoying the benefit of slightly higher oil prices and fiscal consolidation, increased efforts for peace in Yemen and the slowly receding strength ...

 
Summary Slides

Essential Macro Insights for Retail Planning

25 May 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  50 Slides

This session will provide the critical macro insights needed to identify the challenges and opportunities for growth.

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar: Category Insights 2022 - First Look at Kantar Retail's Updated Forecasts

10 May 2017, 11:00 AM EDT

We are moving quickly to a post-recovery world which will still look relatively unfamiliar and daunting to suppliers and retailers. Escalating online penetration, renewed pockets of inflation, diverging spending confidence, and demographic shifts are among the many macro factors which will influence category spending in the coming years. Tune in to find out Kantar Retail's latest perspective on category growth, and how retailers and suppliers will need to adjust to succeed in this post-recovery ...

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Market Forecasts

 
ARTICLE

Five Retail Implications From Category Trends

4 May 2017

  By: Doug Hermanson

Kantar Retail’s latest U.S. category forecasts indicate the future of retail will look less familiar and in some ways will be even more challenging than the previous five years. This article presents five of the biggest implications from these market-altering category trends.

 
Summary Slides

Home Improvement Forecasts and Outlook

25 Apr 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  12 Slides

Kantar Retail’s home improvement channel sales forecasts feature a breakout of sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms for the home centers, hardware stores, and other building specialty channels. Forecasts can be viewed in a summary slide or excel format.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q2 Outlook

23 Mar 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

Curious what spring has in store? This channel forecast summary slide deck features forecasts for the second quarter. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Webinar

US Home Improvement Webinar: The Connected Home Story and Macro Trends for 2017

9 Mar 2017, 01:00 PM EST

"Stress-free" continues to be the shopping mantra of 2017. In the search for convenience and ease, shoppers are seeking out new and innovative ways to remove friction from their lives, and increasingly their homes. From smart thermostats to home security systems, connected home technology provides shoppers with new alternatives for home maintenance and stress-free living. With Kantar Retail's lead economist expecting positive macro tailwinds in 2017, The Home Depot and Lowe's will be frontrunners ...

 
Summary Slides

Home Improvement Forecasts and Outlook

13 Oct 2016

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

Kantar Retail’s home improvement channel sales forecasts feature a breakout of sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms for the home centers, hardware stores, and other building specialty channels. Forecasts can be viewed in a summary slide or excel format.

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